When the 2011 NFL playoffs began there were 12 teams, and now just four remain. And Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh and New York will lock horns on Sunday, January 23rd, 2011 in the AFC and NFC Championship games to determine who will advance to Super Bowl XLV. A detailed preview of both championship games is provided below, including predictions and picks for both match ups.A huge Steeler Nation salute to first-year special teams coach Al Everest for the work he's done helping transform the Pittsburgh special teams from one of the worst in the NFL last year, to a group that fared well in just about every phase of STs in 2010. After two solid months to start the year, I wrote that Everest was already deserving of a raise, as the improvements covering kickoffs played a big role in why the team got off to a solid start despite missing their franchise quarterback for the first quarter of the season. The Steelers finished with an overall ST DVOA ranking of 16th this year; last year they were 30th. The biggest difference has been the vast improvement covering kickoffs. In '09, the Steelers were historically bad. Like, maybe the worst in NFL history, and definitely the worst ever through the first three months of a season.
This year they've been much better, though they're still in the bottom third of the league according to FO's DVOA metrics. By traditional yards per return allowed though, the Steelers finished 5th at an even 20 yards per kickoff return. Frankly, those FO metrics don't tell the whole story of how much better they've been. Considering the lack of booming kickoffs by Jeff Reed and Sean Suisham, I'd say they've done just dandy.
However, Pittsburgh's final special teams stats would have been even better if not for a collectively poor performance against the New York Jets in Week 15. The Steelers allowed a TD on the game's opening return, which I took a closer look at yesterday. The ST shortcomings didn't end there unfortunately. Pittsburgh didn't punt the ball well, and they were unable to make a big splash play of their own in the return game. Let's take a closer look at just how decisively New York won the third phase of the game that day, and how it played an integral role in the Jets leaving Heinz Field with an important December road win.
Average starting field position
Steelers: 22 yard line
Jets: 30 yard line
Drives started from inside own 20
Steelers: 3
Jets: 0
Punting stats
Steve Weatherford : 4 punts, 36.8 average, 3 downed inside 20, long 52
Jeremy Kapinos: 4 punts, 38 average, 0 downed inside 20, long 44
Since I gave Kapinos some love in a recent column, I don't feel too bad when I say that he was not good at all against the Jets. Kapinos had three opportunities to pin the Jets deep inside their own 5-10 yard line. The first was a 4th-and-2 from the Jets 45 in the 1st quarter; the second came on the Steelers very next possession on a 4th and 2 from the Jets 34; and finally, the last came on a 4th-and-8 from the PIT 41 with about 7 minutes in the fourth quarter and the Jets up by 3. Kapinos whiffed on all three attempts. The first two were definitely hard to stomach...total chip shots. The third was a tougher situation to pin deep, but in that instance, the Steelers needed a clutch punt and didn't get it. The Jets started from the 24 yard line rather than pinned deep. The difference in field position there was huge, as the Jets were able to pick up a few first downs and then pin Pittsburgh inside its own 5 yard line with not much time remaining. That difference in field position led to the safety that made a last-minute comeback harder to achieve. After the game, I wondered why Coach Tomlin was not more aggressive and not go for at least one of those fourth-and-short situations inside New York territory. But I suppose if Kapinos had executed like Tomlin expected him to, hindsight would have been different.
Kickoff Returns
Steelers: 5 returns, 72 total yards, 14.4 average
Jets: 5 returns, 145 total yards, 29 average, 1 TD
Obviously Brad Smith's 97-yard TD return to start the game was a huge difference maker in the outcome. That's actually a fairly low average for NY considering they took one to the house, but A. Cromartie's -6 yard return following the fourth quarter safety certainly hurt the average.
As for the Steelers....well, not a good day returning kickoffs for Antonio Brown (M. Moore had one ho-hum return as well). Yards and points may be hard to come by on Sunday, so it's imperative to bring that return average up closer to the team's season average of 23.5 yards/return.
AFC Championship Game :-
The 2011 NFL American Football Conference Championship game features Rex Ryan and the New York Jets at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers edged the Ravens in a tough divisional game, and the Jets come into the AFC Championship game following a revenge win over New England in Foxborough. This match up will probably showcase the defenses, as both of these teams rely on defense first. That said, both offenses are firing on all cylinders right now, and Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger's solid performances have returned him to good graces with the coaching staff and fans. Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez has come into his own in the latter half of this season, and he has a lot more talent in the skill positions (WR Braylon Edwards, WR Santonio Holmes, and RB LaDanian Tomlinson) to work with this year.
Look for Rex Ryan to have drawn up some exotic blitz packages to keep Roethlisberger from getting into a rhythm, and in the second half also look for the Jets D to line up in the same formation to try and get the QB to change the play and then call off the blitz. Don't expect too much blitzing from either side in the first quarter though, neither one of these coaches want to give up an early score.
You know there will be many hard hits in this game, and it could go either way, but my gut says go with the Jets as they are just a little more hungry and that might give them a slight edge.
NFC Championship Game :-
The 2011 National Football Conference Championship game pits the Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field Sunday evening. This conference final matches up two NFC North rivals for the the third go round this season, and these teams know each other well. Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has emerged from the shadow of Brett Favre, and is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. The Packers defense has improved dramatically over the last few weeks, and is playing an aggressive, disruptive style but with discipline. The Bears always play in your face defense, and they shut out Seattle for almost a full three quarters in their last game. Chicago's offense revolves around QB Jay Cutler who has been up and down all season, but he seems to be in good form right now.
Expect to see Aaron Rodgers come out throwing for the Packers. The Bears play very good run defense, and aside from rookie RB James Starks' recent breakout Green Bay has not a had a particularly good running attack all year. Look for as more balanced attack from Jay Cutler and Chicago as they are more committed to the run game, but the Packers D seems to get better every week, so the Bears better have a Plan B.
Winning or losing generally boils down to making plays at this point in the playoffs, and given the Pack is clearly peaking right now, let's go with the hot team and take Green Bay to move on to Super Bowl XLV.
For more on the 2011 playoffs and the road to Super Bowl XLV see:
NFL Playoff Scores–AFC & NFC Divisional Round NFL Scores & Wrapup
NFL Playoffs 2011 – NFL Playoff Schedule, Preview, and Analysis
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